How a US Trade War Could Trigger a Cyber Security Chain Reaction
- nicolaferraritest
- Jun 23
- 2 min read
As US-China tensions threaten to escalate once again, the security community is beginning to ask: how will global trade disruption impact cyber security?
In a recent feature by Assured Intelligence, our Partner Tom Pepper, also a UK government security advisor, joined other industry experts to explore the deeper risks that protectionist trade policies and economic downturns could bring to enterprise security.
“Tariffs may trigger a rethink of supply chains, vendor partnerships and data flows,” Tom explains.
This seemingly simple shift could have profound consequences for security leaders tasked with protecting critical systems and data in an increasingly volatile world.
Economic Pressure, Strategic Vulnerability
As Assured Intelligence outlines, tariffs that make exporting more expensive can put pressure on profit margins. When that happens, cyber security can be one of the first budgets to suffer, especially if it’s still seen as a cost centre rather than a business enabler.
“Long-term investments, such as cloud security transformation or third-party risk management, are particularly vulnerable, while incident response and compliance-driven controls tend to be preserved.”
“That creates an imbalance, increasing operational risk and leaving firms exposed to attack.”
This trade-off between short-term compliance and long-term resilience is precisely where attackers thrive.
Recession: A Double-Edged Threat
Should trade tensions snowball into a wider recession, the risks multiply. According to the article, 60% of top economists believe there is a high or very high chance of a global recession this year.
Tom warns this could lead to a dangerous combination of weakened defences and accelerated digital change.
“Cybercriminals know that recession-hit businesses may reduce controls, postpone updates, or struggle to monitor alerts effectively. That creates opportunity, particularly for ransomware operators and financially motivated actors.”
At the same time, organisations often turn to automation and digital transformation as a cost-saving measure, but without matching security investment, that path introduces significant exposure.
“Security is often added too late, exposing legacy systems and newly adopted technologies alike.”
What This Means for CISOs
The message for CISOs and IT leaders is clear: You must consider economic and geopolitical risks as part of your threat model.
Whether reviewing supplier dependencies, reprioritising security spend, or aligning transformation with controls, strategic security planning must extend beyond the technical and into global business context.
Avella’s Perspective
At Avella, we advise organisations across regulated industries to build cyber resilience with foresight - not just compliance. Tom’s insights highlight the need for cross-functional collaboration between security, procurement, legal, and business continuity teams, especially in times of economic uncertainty.
Read the full article here: 🔗 Assured Intelligence – Beware the Tariff Man
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